Russian Frustration
Category: Politics...
Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2003 at 07:52 PM [GMT-6]

I'm far from expert in the area of US-Russian diplomatic wrangling, so this op-ed piece in today's Moscow Times is an eye-opener for me.

The writer's description of Russian military maneuvers during Colin Powell's visit to Moscow earlier this month is just amazing:

While Powell was in Moscow, several Russian strategic bombers --Tu-95 Bears and Tu-160 Blackjacks -- flew from a base in the Volga region to the Indian Ocean to simulate an attack by nuclear-tipped long-range cruise missiles on U.S. Navy ships and the main U.S. air base in the region at Diego Garcia.

The mission by long-range bombers was coordinated with a naval exercise in the Indian Ocean by a large task force of Russian surface ships and nuclear attack submarines (sent to the region before the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime), which simulated attacks on U.S. aircraft carrier groups. The Defense Ministry did not make much of a secret of the purely anti-American nature of the Indian Ocean military exercise and leaked the details to friendly journalists in an apparent attempt to influence foreign policy decision-making.

The reported end of the Cold War was apparently premature, at least in the minds of some of Russia's military leaders:

Under growing public pressure to reform a wasteful Soviet-style military, the generals are desperately trying to retain the United States as their main antagonist, hoping this will result in a drastic growth in defense spending sometime in the future and help keep an extended armed forces structure at present. The apparent victory by pro-Western forces did not change the Defense Ministry's underlying anti-American posture.

Frankly, I figure Russia can wargame until the cows come home and we're not likely to lose much sleep. The rest of the article is actually more disturbing, as it deals with issues that are likely to require our attention, namely the discovery of previously undisclosed uranium enrichment facilities in Iran, and Russia's contracts to provide enriched uranium to fuel the nuclear power reactor now under construction at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf. One possible interpretation of the US position?

In fact, the Bush administration seems to be moving toward sending the Kremlin an ultimatum: End Bushehr or we will bomb it to bits anyway.

Russia suffered real losses in Iraq, both economically and politically. Wonder how much they can afford to lose in Iran?

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