TDF: Stage 3 - Cobblestones
The two sections of cobblestones in today's stage of the Tour de France proved the undoing of more than one rider, in more than one way. The crashes that were directly or indirectly related to the rough, narrow "pavé" yielded one broken collarbone (Marco Velo) and more than one bruised ego. None was hurt as badly from a psychological perspective than Spaniard Iban Mayo, considered by some as a legitimate contender for the podium at the end of the Tour. Unfortunately for him, he got tangled up in one of the crashes, was dropped by the lead pack and ended up losing almost 4 minutes...effectively ending any hope he has of winning the race. Even though his crash was not directly related to the cobblestones, their presence certainly played a factor in his group not being able to catch up to the lead pack.
The Big Guns (Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Heras) were better prepared (wider wheels and tires), smarter (riding hard to stay at the front of the peloton at the beginning of the cobbled sections) and luckier. That last factor is perhaps the most crucial, whether you believe in it or not.
In a 23-day race, over amazingly varied terrain and through all kinds of weather conditions, unexpected things can happen no matter how you try to anticipate them. You can optimize your odds with intelligence and money, but sometimes it just comes down to being in the right place at the right time. That's why this race is so fascinating to watch.
Tomorrow is the team time trial, a stage where in the past you might expect the USPS team to build big -- even insurmountable -- leads over some of its rivals. However, a rule change this year limits the amount of time a team can lose to just three minutes, somewhat reducing the importance of this stage. Nevertheless, watch for Lance's team to put on an awesome display of power and speed, with the likely result that Armstrong will be in yellow by the end of the day.
Barring, that is, any bad luck.
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Indeed, the entire Tour de France could be renamed the "Tour defeat Lance" this year. It will only make it that much more sweet when he is on the winner's podium the last day. :-D
Posted by: bryan at July 7, 2004 09:57 PM