Tsunami warning unheeded in Thailand?

Via Malaysian blogger ireneQ comes a link to an English language Thai news story alleging that the Bankok office of Thailand's Meterological Office considered, then rejected issuing a tsunami warning minutes after the earthquake hit northern Sumatra.

One's initial reaction to reading this report is likely to be a mixture of disgust and despair, similar to what ireneQ expresses. It does, indeed, appear that commercial concerns trumped human considerations, as the scientists bent to pressure to protect the country's important tourism industry. Outrage is a legitimate reaction to such a scenario.

At the same time, the officials make some legitimate points in support of their decision not to issue a warning. The fact that the last tsunami hit Thailand 300 years ago is not insignificant. They also pointed to a similar if smaller quake that hit Sumatra in 2002 with no impact on Thailand. And, finally, they were operating from a report that the earthquake itself was measured at 8.1 on the Richter Scale, which is much less powerful than official level reported later. (Keep in mind that the Richter Scale is logarithmic, meaning that an increase in 1 point on the scale represents a 10x increase in actual power.)

I'd hate to have been in their shoes; I'm not sure I'd have made a different decision, based on the facts they were working with. Unfortunately, the tipping point for the decision not to issue a warning did seem to come from the idea that this is the height of the tourism season, and they didn't want to be responsible for any possible economic disruption that might come from a false alarm. There will be second-guessing for some time to come as a result.

Comments

"It does, indeed, appear that commercial concerns trumped human considerations, as the scientists bent to pressure to protect the country's important tourism industry."

It's an old, sad story. Anybody remember the film these lines came from?

"You knew it was dangerous, but you let people go swimming anyway...

Chief Brody, are you going to close the beaches?"

Same motivations, same tragic results.

Personally, I suspect you would have made a different decision and played it safe, regardless of the consequences of being wrong.

"We could go under, if the [tsunami] didn't come," said a source who attended the meeting.

Looks like they went under when it did.

The attitude of the officials in charge is typical:
1.) Deny the truth
2.) Act justified

Supharerk denied that tourism factored into the discussion at the 11th hour. "I think we have done our best," he said.

Great job. Here's a shovel, you can help bury the bodies.

Posted by: Mr. Freen at December 30, 2004 08:51 AM

Yeah, the comparison to the similar situation "Jaws" was so obvious that I knew most readers would make the connection.

I hope I would have erred on the side of caution. However, as crass as it sounds, such decisions must always be made with some kind of risk-weighted cost/benefit analysis in the back of your mind.

Posted by: Eric at December 30, 2004 09:09 AM

Major difference in degree here, but I remember reporting on efforts by groups to get school boards in Texas to cut back on the 'school year.'

The concern raised by these groups - chambers of commerce, professional organizations, business advocacy lobbies, etc. - was that starting school in late August deprived local communities - and the state as a whole - from valuable tourism proceeds, with families missing out on the busy Labor Day weekend for travel.

Like I said - difference of degree, this wasn't life-and-death. But it was a genuine matter of concern for these groups. And there were a varietry of other, non-business-related factors that came into play as our West Texas school boards went about setting their calendars.

Posted by: Jeff at December 30, 2004 12:03 PM
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