Dean is to 2008 as Gravy is to Batteries
I know I'm not the brightest bulb in the chandelier when it comes to politics, but I really don't understand the Republican glee over the selection of Howard Dean to head up the Democratic National Committee.
If you listen to the commentators on Fox News, for example, you'd think that the Republicans had just been handed the keys to the 2008 White House on a silver platter. Some are going so far as to say that Dean's appointment will not only ensure a Republican presidency in 2008, but will ensure Republican majorities in both houses of Congress.
I don't buy it. Sure, Karl Rove swung a heavy bat behind the scenes in the last presidential election, and I suppose his strategy decisions reinforced certain themes that "resonated" with the majority of voters. But the race still went to the candidate with the best ideas (as judged by those voters), and I don't believe for a minute that Rove planted any of those ideas in an otherwise barren landscape.
Until proven otherwise, I believe that Hillary Clinton will be the Dem's candidate in 2008, and Senator Clinton will set the agenda for the party's run at the White House, when it comes time to do so. How much does she need Dean? So much that rather than being in close proximity at the time he was anointed, she's in Ukraine as a part of the Congressional delegation meeting with the newly elected President Yuschenko.
Republicans would do well to look at Dean in similar fashion as C.S. Lewis warned Christians to view the devil: you can get in trouble by not taking him seriously enough, but also by taking him too seriously.
Jeff, I still respectfully disagree. The Democratic party will be "energized" by only one thing: a candidate who can win. Hillary is the closest thing they have to that right now, and she's the one who'll do the energizing. Dean will (must) work with her, but it's obvious to me who'll be pulling the strings.
I suspect Dean's main attraction will be keeping the leftists on board while Hillary does her inevitable centrist swing.
As you say, it will be interesting...
Posted by: Eric at February 11, 2005 02:57 PMThe Republicans are jubliant because of the two options possible ---1] be a healing, anti-divisive force to draw moderates back or 2] piss a lot of people off....... he will undoubtedly do the later.
Posted by: Wallace-Midland, Texas at February 11, 2005 03:45 PMI hear you, Wallace, and perhaps there's some wisdom there for the next couple of years, but when presidential race time comes, it's all about the candidate.
Posted by: Eric at February 11, 2005 03:50 PMWhy the glee?
Here's why--
The same net activists that apparently Dems think are the key to their revival pushed Dean (who was not a radical, goofy governor) so far left as to make John Kerry the "electable" choice in the field. Think about that.
The same net activists have now effectively crowned him their party's spokesman. Think they're not going to exert the same influence they did last time?
Maybe not, but I'm full of glee just thinking about it. Why not?
Posted by: kevin whited at February 12, 2005 12:42 PMListen, I hope you guys are right; I really do...and I understand the reason for the chortling. I'm a chortler myself. Let's just not underestimate Senator Clinton's ability to become whatever she needs to be to get elected and to drag the rest of the party along behind her, regardless of who heads up the DNC or who tries to set the agenda for the party prior to 2007 (when the campaign will start heating up).
Posted by: Eric at February 12, 2005 01:57 PMAbout the publisher
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Eric, I think you have to draw a line between Dean the political candidate, and Dean the political organizer.
As a candidate, he flopped to a degree that hasn't been seen - in my opinion - since Democratic front-runner Edmund Muskie tearfully crashed in the 1970s.
As an organizer, though, Dean may have the ability and the ideas to energize a party that desperately needs to re-establish its foundation while finding its vision.
In this respect, he may - like the Karl Roves of the world - realize his greatest success not in the offices he achieves, but in the way he helps others achieve office.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
Posted by: Jeff at February 11, 2005 02:53 PM