TDF 2005: The Countdown Begins!
Category: Sports (Pro/College/HS)...
Posted Monday, June 27, 2005 at 10:08 AM [GMT-6]

The 92nd edition of the Tour de France begins this Saturday, July 2 and, as usual, it's all about Lance. Can he pull off a 7th victory, a feat which is highly unlikely to be repeated in our lifetimes?

The 3,500 km race kicks off with the traditional Prologue time trial, a 19 km torture test leaving from the village of Fromentine, located on the east coast of France. The Prologue is not a strategic stage from a physical perspective, but it can send a critical psychological message. Lance Armstrong will have the advantage of starting last, as the wearer of the yellow jersey from last year's TDF, and if he wins this time trial it will be a mental blow to his challengers who keep hoping for some sign of age-related weakness.

Of course, Lance didn't win the Prologue last year, coming in second to Swiss rider Fabian Cancellara...and that didn't affect the final results at all. So, in my opinion, Lance has a lot to gain but not much to lose in the opening stage.

Unfortunately, I'll be out of town this weekend and won't be able to live-blog the first three stages, but I hope to get back on schedule next week, providing my usual mix of tired clichés and uncompelling insights. Fortunately, the race itself provides more than enough drama. I hope you'll watch what you can along with me, and then drop by here occasionally to share your observations.

My prediction for TDF 2005? I'm notoriously non-committal, and I haven't really kept up with Armstrong's pre-TDF conditioning and race results, but from what I can tell, there are no signs of obvious weakness in either Lance or his Discovery Channel team that can be exploited by his competition. I think that only bad luck -- a disabling crash or illness or a disastrous equipment failure -- will keep him from a 7th yellow jersey, and Sheryl will be Croweing a victory song on July 24th. And, frankly, there's no racer on the planet who does more to control his own environment, and thus the "luck" that goes along with it, than Lance.