TdF Analysis: Stage 4 - American still in yellow
Category: Sports (Pro/College/HS)...
Posted Tuesday, July 05, 2005 at 06:59 PM [GMT-6]

Nobody could have predicted today's ending of stage 4 of the Tour de France...well, nobody other than Lance Armstrong, who earlier in the week said that the team time trial would be won or lost in the last few kilometers.

The stage was actually decided in the last 1.5 kilometers and in dramatic fashion as American Dave Zabriskie clipped the rear tire of his teammate and fell hard to knock him out of the yellow jersey and his team out of the victory in the fastest team time trial in TdF history. Zabriskie, riding for the CSC team, was never a serious threat to Armstrong's quest for seven, and as one of only a handful of men who has bested Lance in a TdF individual time trial, it would have been nice for him to continue to wear yellow for a few more days. Indeed, Team CSC had led Team Discovery Channel through most of the stage and ended up losing by only two seconds. It's not inconceivable that Zabriskie could have pulled CSC to victory were it not for his untimely spill.

To add insult to injury, because he fell more than a kilometer from the finish, he was not credited with his team's overall time and ended up losing more than a minute to the race leaders. Armstrong now has a 64 second lead over Jens Voigt in third place (second place is held by Armstrong's teammate, George Hincapie). Jan Ullrich is 96 seconds behind Armstrong after four stages.

Thus, my prediction continues: barring an accident or illness, Armstrong will win his seventh TdF. But, as we saw today, the yellow jersey wearer is not immune to accidents.

Tomorrow's stage runs over a bell-curve shaped 183 km route with a gradual climb for the first 90 km, some semi-tough hills in the middle (including one short category 4 climb), followed by 70 km of mostly downhill cycling. It should make for a fast -- and therefore potentially dangerous -- finishing sprint, especially if the peloton stays intact for the duration. The main suspense will be whether Lance will try to defend his yellow jersey in case of a concerted attack. I expect him to be more aggressive than perhaps his team manager would like.

As usual, your best source for live updates is the official TdF website, and your best source for analysis and extended blog coverage is TDF Blog.

Technorati tags: Tour de France | Lance Armstrong | Dave Zabriskie