"Dancing With the Stars": Handicapping the Field
Category: TV & Radio...
Posted Thursday, April 05, 2007 at 06:32 AM [GMT-6]

Note: The following post may seem to edge dangerously close to obsessive. So be it. At least I'm not writing about something truly trivial, like, say, baseball.

We're a couple of weeks into ABC's Dancing With the Stars and it's time for me to weigh in with my observations and predictions. With almost two years of ballroom lessons under my belt, I feel I'm well qualified to recognize bad dancing when I see it, because I've seen a lot of it -- primarily on the videos of our lessons.

Two contestants have been voted off the show: alleged supermodel Paulina Poriskova and the wearyingly bubbly game show hostess, Shandi Finnessey. The fact that the shambling Clyde Drexler and the soporific Billy Ray Cyrus are still in the competition proves my pet theory about the show: it's a man's contest. Or, put another way, the female viewership vote is such that a woman will have to clearly outshine all male competitors to win. There's only one woman in this year's cast with the potential for doing that.

Here's my seeding for the next nine weeks of DWTS, from bottom to top (and please note that these are my predictions, not my preferences):

9. Clyde "The Glide" Drexler -- Clyde's no Emmitt Smith, and while the voters offset some of the harshest words from the judges we've heard to date, his fan base won't keep him on the court, uh, dance floor another week.


8. Leeza Gibbons -- Placing a [non-permanent] "Tramp" tattoo above her left breast in order to channel her inner rebel may have come across as saucy and edgy to some, but my general reaction was more akin to ewwww. She's a better dancer than the next two guys, but not good enough to overcome the gender gap.


7. Billy Ray Cyrus -- Billy Ray continues to do penance [all the way to the bank] for the unpardonable sin of performing a country song with mass commercial appeal, and because of that, I'd be happy to see him continue. But he's the Master P of this year's competition, and doesn't exhibit enough charisma to counter his lack of footwork.


6. John Ratzenberger -- The likable Cheers star is the token AARP rep, ala Jerry Springer last year and George Hamilton before that. He'll get some slack cut for old times' sake, and he's got the acting ability to sell the choreography, but the legs just aren't there to keep him in the show.


5. Heather Mills -- Heather has been a pleasant surprise to me, not for her dancing as much as for the way she seems to be truly enjoying the experience. She's more likable than I expected. Her partner is doing an amazing job of choreographing steps that minimize the impact of her prosthetic leg, using basic misdirection to allow a cooperative audience to happily ignore one unfortunate fact: she's just not that good as a dancer. And, despite assurances to the contrary at the beginning, it's difficult to believe that she's being judged with the same criteria as the top competitors. Nevertheless, her example is truly inspirational and a fifth place showing will be a non-trivial accomplishment.


4. Laila Ali -- Laila is, as everyone knows, Muhammed Ali's daughter, and a world champion boxer. She has her dad's moves, athleticism, and charisma -- but she's also got his mercurial temperament, and does not appear to suffer fools or losing lightly. That intensity works for her in the ring, but not so much in the eyes of the voting audience. If she'll soften her demeanor a bit, and loosen up on the floor, she could do better than I predict; she's got the talent to pull it off. Her main disadvantage is that she's a woman, and she'll have a hard time disguising that with choreography. [Now, here's the probably controversial sleeper factor: she's got that "Jennifer Hudson" build, and I'm sure there's a sizable segment of the female voters who can relate to and pull for her more than for some of her preternaturally skinny competitors.]


3. Ian Ziering -- I'd never heard of Ian before this show, and the fact that his name is pronounced "eye-ann" doesn't help his cause. But if this was just about the dancing, Ian would win, hands-down. He's likable, self-effacing, charming, and has the best moves. How can I say that? He's the only competitor whose minor mistake in the last dance was obvious enough to be (1) pointed out by the judges, (2) spotlighted on the show, and (3) recognized as it occurred by me. And how, you ask, does such an obvious mistake illustrate his superiority? Fair question, and it's simply because all the others had performances that were uniformly lackluster, such that their mistakes got lost in the shuffle. Unfortunately for Ian, this is not all about the dancing. [Wild card: Ian's paired with Cheryl Burke, who's won this contest twice in a row.]


2. Apolo Anton Ohno -- The Olympic gold medal speed skater is a fine athlete, and his sport's required skills -- balance and quick feet -- translate directly to the dance floor. His personality is more endearing than the somber focused shots from the Olympics would indicate. He's also drawn the perfect partner, first-time DWTSer Julianne Hough, whose youth and energy match well with Ohno's. Whether he can channel his athleticism into the necessary controlled precision remains to be seen, but the pair certainly can captivate when they're "on." I sense huge voter support from the under-21 crowd.


1. Joey Fatone -- Despite having, to paraphrase British judge Len Goodman, a "bum that sticks out there," former boy band member Fatone has the stage training and presence to win the whole thing. It's hard to figure out why he's allowed to compete with untrained dancers; just because he's never danced a traditional tango, for instance, doesn't make him any less a trained hoofer. You think that tight choreography displayed by NSYNC doesn't carry over to ballroom? Guess again. Anyway, next to Ian, he's got the best moves, and his fan base is off the chart. And it's not hurting him that he's paired with the stunning Aussie, Kym Johnson, who paid her dues last season as Jerry Springer's partner (and carried him to a much undeserved fifth place).

Now, given my woeful performance predicting outcomes in the NCAA men's basketball tournament, I wouldn't advise mortgaging the house to lay a big bet on any of the preceding prognostications.

Permalink