DWTS: The Final Four
Category: TV & Radio...
Posted Wednesday, May 09, 2007 at 09:16 AM [GMT-6]

Now that Billy Ray "Sanjaya" Cyrus has mercifully been axed from Dancing with the Stars, we need to assess the chances of the remaining four competitors.

When I last handicapped the field, there were nine contestants, and I managed to get the final four right (which, admittedly, wasn't rocket science). However, I never dreamed that someone as truly and resolutely awful as Cyrus would survive this long. The fact that he did demonstrates (1) the power of fan voting and (B) the inability of said fans to recognize and/or care about dancing talent.

Nevertheless, we're now where we should be, with the four best dancers remaining. Here's my prediction of the final outcome based solely on my assessment of their skill:

  1. Laila Ali
  2. Joey Fatone
  3. Ian Ziering
  4. Apolo Anton Ohno

And here's my prediction of the results considering the enigmatic "fan factor":

  1. Joey Fatone - Face it; the guy's annoying. His self-effacing humor was an asset in the beginning, but the strain of maintaining it is beginning to show.

  2. Laila Ali - Ali's disadvantaged by her gender. I don't think there are enough female boxing fans to keep her going, and while having her almost universally loved dad on Monday's show was a brilliant move, it won't work every week.

  3. Ian Ziering - Ziering is wound tighter than Cheryl Burke's costumes, but the loyalty of BH90210 fans is apparently boundless. Fortunately, he's a talented dancer (and has been held to a higher standard by the judges than anyone else, in my opinion).

  4. Apolo Anton Ohno - Despite needing to use three names to distinguish himself from all the other Apolo Onhos out there, this guy is the surprise of the season. He gets better each week, and he and his partner are a publicist's dream. Need further proof? MLB is rooting for them.

As for me, I'm waiting for Jimmy Kimmel and Guillermo to be actual contestants next year. Last night's bit with Master P invoked serious paroxysms of hilarity (whatever that means) in our living room.

Feel free to dispute my predictions, or the shoddy reasoning behind them.

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Comments

I like Joey's dancing. I hope Liala wins. The other two guys are carried ahead by their partners, I don't notice the guys for watching the girls! But then what do I know, I don't dance and if I did it would probably look like Billy Ray's!

Posted by: Allie at May 9, 2007 09:48 AM

...and if I did it would probably look like Billy Ray's!

I don't know. Somehow, I can't picture you as "a wild bear in the swamp"! ;-)

Posted by: Eric at May 9, 2007 10:49 AM

I'm thinking of cutting my beard waaaaayyyy back and having just a little 'Ohno tuft' on the chin ..... it will make me a better dancer, and a faster skater I'm sure .....

:-)

Posted by: Jeff at May 9, 2007 11:20 AM

Jeff, if you're starting at the same place as me, I suspect you're right on both accounts. ;-)

Posted by: Eric at May 9, 2007 11:29 AM

I was rooting for Billy Ray (not that I thought he would win). But it was fun watching him be the Everyman/good ole boy of the bunch. And even the judges grudgingly admitted that he worked hard and made progress. I was disappointed that he never got an "8" score like he wanted. Otherwise, watching Billy Ray was like watching a trainwreck...you know something awful is about to happen, but you can't look away.

IMHO, I think Apollo will take it.

Posted by: Darrell at May 10, 2007 07:55 AM

Darrell, I think the fact that many others shared your view of Billy Ray is what kept him on the show when his actual dancing ability should have dictated a much earlier exit. This is what also drove the judges to make increasingly harsh assessments of his performances; they were getting frustrated over the conflict between their goal of rewarding the best dancers, and the viewers goal of rewarding the most entertaining performers (with the definition of "entertaining" being quite subjective!).

The parallel between him and Sanjaya on "American Idol" (a show I do not watch, by the way) is striking.

Posted by: Eric at May 10, 2007 10:24 AM

It does not surprise me to see Joey Fatone in the bottom two this week on Dancing With The Stars. He is a professional dancer on a show made for amateur dancing celebrities. Also, he is just not as fun to watch as the others. My personal favorite team is Ian and Cheryl. They have so much personality and give each dance 100% effort. Ian is not a professional dancer like Joey, nor a professional athlete like Apolo or Laila, so he comes to the finals with an obvious disadvantage. But yet he has all the talent of the rest of them -- last week he received six straight "9s" from the judges. I hope he surprises everyone by giving his best performances in the next two weeks and capturing the trophy. If you like Ian and Cheryl, please do your part to vote for them on Monday -- vote 4 times for each phone number and 4 times online. If you like Ian and Cheryl, please do your part to vote for them on Monday -- vote 4 times for each phone number and 4 times online. Also, Ian has really cool videos on his websites at www.IanZiering.com and www.MySpace.com/OfficialIZ and there you can sign up to receive his fun email blasts every week.

Posted by: Daisy at May 11, 2007 06:33 AM

Daisy, Fatone's background has bothered me since day one, for the reasons you mention. He seemed to come with an unfair advantage over the others. It doesn't bother me at all that he's slipping in the standings.

I do, however, disagree with your contention that Ohno's and Ali's sports backgrounds are unfair advantages. Clyde Drexler was also a professional athlete, and his dancing was pitiful. I know from firsthand experience that the "muscle memory" doesn't translate from sport to dancing, being a runner and cyclist who's also taking ballroom lessons.

What does translate is the discipline to train and practice, and the ability to do your best under stress...and that's something that anyone can achieve if they're committed to doing so. Ian is not at a disadvantage from that respect.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Posted by: Eric at May 11, 2007 10:25 AM
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