Handicapping DWT '07
Category: Ballroom Dancing... TV & Radio...
Posted Tuesday, November 20, 2007 at 09:51 AM [GMT-6]

Tonight we'll learn which three couples will advance to the finals in this season's edition of Dancing With the Stars. So, once again, I'm putting my professional and personal reputation on the line by providing my earnest-yet-uninformed opinions about the contestants and their chances. (It should be noted that I did pick last year's winner, but missed just about everything else. Hey, you're getting what you're paying for, so don't complain.)

Here's assessment of the skill of the remaining contestants.

1. Mel B (aka Scary Spice) – For raw dancing prowess, she stands head, shoulders, and D-cup ahead of everyone else. She's also a scary-fierce competitor, and a good match for her partner, Mad Max. If it was just about the dancing, she's the easy winner.


2. Helio Castroneves (aka Speed Racer) – Helio is this year's Apolo or Emmitt. He's smooth and precise, as you would expect from an open-wheel driver, and his sheer joy in performing is infectious.


3. Jennie Garth (aka Who Dat?) - She's another pleasant surprise. Like Helio, she had no formal dance training, and she struggled early on with technique and confidence. The former was expected; the latter was a surprise to those of us accustomed to seeing celebs handle anything thrown at them. But she absolutely rocked last night's cha cha, and showed that she's overcome both of those early issues.


4. Marie Osmond (aka the Swooning Sweetheart) - I just realized something last night (a guilty confession): Marie is hot. Or, she can be when she puts her mind to it. She's easily the weakest dancer in the final group, but she's not afraid to take chances, and she knows how to shine when the music starts.

So, that's how I see them stack up based on pure skill. Here's how I predict they'll actually finish, based on some intangibles that I'm completely unqualified to assess:

4. Mel B - She goes home tonight, as the voters penalize her for being, well, a professional dancer. As with the Cheetah Girl, who got spanked early much to the surprise of the judges, the viewing public wants to see someone they can relate to perform under pressure, and no one can relate to a Spice Grrrl.


3. Jennie - To be honest – and this surprises me – Jennie would be my personal favorite to win, because she epitomizes the reason this show is successful: celebrities put in situations outside their comfort zones so we can watch them squirm and either excel or exit. Jennie has come further, with more honest tenacity, than any of the other competitors, and she's turned into a very, very good dancer.


2. Marie - You think Mormons don't rock the vote, especially for ballroom dancing? Brigham Young University has one of the premier dance troupes in the world, and I have no problem extrapolating from that directly to a situation where Osmond's innate likability and showmanship more than overcome her relatively plodding dance steps.


1. Helio - Sorry, girls; this is, ultimately, a competition decided by women, and Helio is just too darned cute not to prevail. That alone wouldn't do it for him, but he's got the skill to back it up. And, like Jennie, he's an amateur in sense of having no dance background. (Unlike Jennie, however, he stepped onto the floor with a fairly high level of apparently natural ability). His secret weapon is his partner, Julianne Hough, whose personality and choreography helped Apolo Anton Ohno win last year.

So, there you have my bold predictions. Feel free to start poking fun at me immediately following tonight's results show (or sooner, if you want to get a jump on the holiday crowd).