Bored with Tour? Well...

I must admit that this year's version of the Tour de France is lacking a certain something...like drama...suspense...tension...anticipation.

Color me blasé, but the workmanlike manner in which Lance Armstrong demolished the competition in the earlier stages makes the race now seem like it's being ridden on cruise control. For some riders who are not used to the spotlight and who are not threats to the overall leaders, the latter stages are good opportunities to try to pick up a stage win, and to the extent you enjoy watching those subplots, the stages have some entertainment. But, really, the only question left is whether Lance will win yellow jersey #7 without actually winning an individual stage.

It's weighing on his mind a bit. He's already put the field on notice that he's going to be focused and aggressive during Saturday's individual time trial and I'm not going to bet against a victory for him.

But, other than that, even the prospect (guarantee?) of a seventh straight overall victory, extending his already amazing record, seems almost anticlimactic.

Even OLN's non-stop "Tribute to Lance" programming seems like a desparate attempt to build some enthusiasm in the absence of any meaningful competition. Here's to the prospect that a worthy successor will appear next year to capture the public's imagination.

Update: In case you think I'm exaggerating, the OLN TV coverage just spent a couple of minutes spotlighting and discussing the implications of the fact that the support vehicle caravan just got caught at a train crossing. We got to watch until the train passed by and gates opened, allowing the cars to begin the chase to catch up with the riders. Talk about pulse-quickening! ;-)

Technorati tag: Tour de France

TDF 2005: Quick Note

Wish I had more time to dissect Lance Armstrong's personal demolition derby during today's first serious mountain stage. Suffice it to say that any reports you've read probably understated the methodical dismemberment of the competition, first by the Discovery Channel team as a whole, then by The Man himself as he pulled the last 11km at such a pace that only three other riders could stay with him...and none of them are the pre-race favorites. Hannibal Lector would have been proud. How bad was it? The yellow jersey leader from stage 9 is now about 30 minutes behind Mr. Armstrong.

The only mild disappointment was that Lance was outsprinted for the stage win by an impressive Alejandro Valverde, a young rider who could well be Lance's heir apparent.

But 2005 belongs to Lance. He made sure the world understood that today.

Tomorrow's stage 11 is highlighted by two climbs so tough that they aren't categorized. The only question that now remains is whether Lance is content with simply humiliating Jan, Iban, Andréas, Alexandre and the rest, or if he really wants to say grace over their graves.

Technorati tag: Tour de France

TdF Analysis: Stage 6 - An unlikely winner

Lorenzo Bernucci is a 26-year old Italian rider who has never won a race as a professional...until today, when he got an improbable victory during the soggy-but-fast 6th stage of the Tour de France.

Bernucci managed to avoid a massive pileup of riders a few hundred meters from the finish and broke free for the victory, just ahead of Alexandre Vinokourov, who also missed the crash but had to briefly unclip from his pedals, which probably resulted in his losing the stage.

With his uncanny sixth sense for such things, Lance Armstrong had dropped back into the peloton just before the rain-slicked turn that provided the excitement and thus did not go down. He lost a couple of seconds in the overall standing, but is still more than a minute ahead of the nearest challenger.

Tomorrow's stage 7 is one of the longer legs of the race, at 228.5 km. It has two categorized climbs, one of which is a cat 3 -- the first of the race -- but overall, the stage should be another fast one. However, Lance observed after today's race that the peloton seems to be weary, presumably due to the winds, rain and fast pace of the stages up to this point.

A random observation (It's What We Do™) today's stage: The podium girls for stage 6 were, well, exceptionally beautiful, especially the two who presented Armstrong with his continuing yellow jersey. Not that that's important. But, still...

Just a reminder that your best source for live updates is the official TdF website, and your best source for analysis and extended blog coverage is TDF Blog.

Technorati tags: Tour de France

TdF Analysis: Stage 5 - Another day, another sprint

As predicted, the finish of today's 183 km stage provided all the excitement. There was the usual small breakaway about 30 miles into the course and the group managed to lead the peloton for much of the rest of the way, but they were inexorably reeled in and caught well before the finish, setting the stage for the usual frantic sprint for the line.

Today's sprint went to Australian Robbie McEwen, by centimeters over Tom Boonen, the Belgian rider who has already collected two stage victories in this year's race. McEwen did a good impression of an NFL wideout after catching a TD pass, beating his chest with both hands as he cycled past the finish, a gesture apparently aimed in the general direction of the race officials who stripped him of a third place finish in an earlier stage, deeming him guilty of head-butting another rider (and you didn't think cycling was a contact sport?).

Despite the drama in the finish, none of the overall race leaders changed position, so Lance Armstrong will wear yellow for the start of tomorrow's 199 km stage. It's interesting to note that he tried not to wear the yellow jersey for today's start, in an attempt to honor the tradition of not taking up the leader's jersey the day after the previous wearer lost it due to a fall (as did American Dave Zabriskie in yesterday's team time trial). But the race director issued an ultimatum to Lance -- wear it today, or miss the start tomorrow -- and Lance, being the intelligent guy he is, got dressed.

Tomorrow's stage could get a little more interesting, as it has four category 4 climbs (the easiest of the categories), with the longest coming only 13 km from the finish. These are not the killer climbs that make or break most riders, but they will present some tactical opportunities if a team wants to probe the resolve of any of the overall leaders. The weather could also become a factor, as the forecast is for a slight chance of rain early in the stage and possible thunderstorms near the end.

Oh, and here's a bit of trivia to end the day: the heaviest rider in this year's race is Sweden's Magnus Bäckstedt, who weighed in at a whopping 209 pounds (he's also about 6' 4" tall). In the cycling world of stage races, that's the equivalent of a 400 pound offensive lineman. Don't look for him to be a factor in the mountains, unless he gets started downhill and can't stop!

Technorati tag: Tour de France

Can't get enough of Lance? OLN wants YOU!

The Fat Cyclist provides a satirical and very funny perspective on the Outdoor Life Network's broadcasting crew's penchant for couching just about everything regarding the race in the context of Lance Armstrong.

Not that they need defending, but I suppose that it's quite difficult for the TV announcers to keep the excitement level high for an event that lasts three weeks and includes quite a bit of mundane activity. You can't blame them for trying to generate excitement...but what will they do next year when they won't have Lance to provide that fodder?

Tip o'the cycling cap to the Tour de France 2005 blog.

Technorati tag: Tour de France

TdF Analysis: Stage 4 - American still in yellow

Nobody could have predicted today's ending of stage 4 of the Tour de France...well, nobody other than Lance Armstrong, who earlier in the week said that the team time trial would be won or lost in the last few kilometers.

The stage was actually decided in the last 1.5 kilometers and in dramatic fashion as American Dave Zabriskie clipped the rear tire of his teammate and fell hard to knock him out of the yellow jersey and his team out of the victory in the fastest team time trial in TdF history. Zabriskie, riding for the CSC team, was never a serious threat to Armstrong's quest for seven, and as one of only a handful of men who has bested Lance in a TdF individual time trial, it would have been nice for him to continue to wear yellow for a few more days. Indeed, Team CSC had led Team Discovery Channel through most of the stage and ended up losing by only two seconds. It's not inconceivable that Zabriskie could have pulled CSC to victory were it not for his untimely spill.

To add insult to injury, because he fell more than a kilometer from the finish, he was not credited with his team's overall time and ended up losing more than a minute to the race leaders. Armstrong now has a 64 second lead over Jens Voigt in third place (second place is held by Armstrong's teammate, George Hincapie). Jan Ullrich is 96 seconds behind Armstrong after four stages.

Thus, my prediction continues: barring an accident or illness, Armstrong will win his seventh TdF. But, as we saw today, the yellow jersey wearer is not immune to accidents.

Tomorrow's stage runs over a bell-curve shaped 183 km route with a gradual climb for the first 90 km, some semi-tough hills in the middle (including one short category 4 climb), followed by 70 km of mostly downhill cycling. It should make for a fast -- and therefore potentially dangerous -- finishing sprint, especially if the peloton stays intact for the duration. The main suspense will be whether Lance will try to defend his yellow jersey in case of a concerted attack. I expect him to be more aggressive than perhaps his team manager would like.

As usual, your best source for live updates is the official TdF website, and your best source for analysis and extended blog coverage is TDF Blog.

Technorati tags: Tour de France | Lance Armstrong | Dave Zabriskie

TDF at a Glance

Via Newsdesigner (a very interesting blog about newspaper design) comes an overview and link to a 2.8 megabyte PDF that will pretty much tell you everything you need to know in anticipation of Lance Armstrong's quest for a seventh yellow jersey in the Tour de France. The graphic comes from The Oregonian in Portland, which ran a special TDF section yesterday.

It's a "doubletruck graphic," (whatever that is!) that gives some great information about Lance's bike and other equipment, his primary competitors, profiles of the race stages, and some insights as to race strategy for those who might be confused by the sometimes obscure rules and tactics in a multi-stage bicycle race. It's very well done.

Tip o'the chapeau to the most excellent if unimaginatively titled Tour de France 2005 blog. Of course, he knows what a doubletruck graphic is, so I have no room to talk.

Technorati tag: Tour de France

TDF 2005: The Countdown Begins!

The 92nd edition of the Tour de France begins this Saturday, July 2 and, as usual, it's all about Lance. Can he pull off a 7th victory, a feat which is highly unlikely to be repeated in our lifetimes?

The 3,500 km race kicks off with the traditional Prologue time trial, a 19 km torture test leaving from the village of Fromentine, located on the east coast of France. The Prologue is not a strategic stage from a physical perspective, but it can send a critical psychological message. Lance Armstrong will have the advantage of starting last, as the wearer of the yellow jersey from last year's TDF, and if he wins this time trial it will be a mental blow to his challengers who keep hoping for some sign of age-related weakness.

Of course, Lance didn't win the Prologue last year, coming in second to Swiss rider Fabian Cancellara...and that didn't affect the final results at all. So, in my opinion, Lance has a lot to gain but not much to lose in the opening stage.

Unfortunately, I'll be out of town this weekend and won't be able to live-blog the first three stages, but I hope to get back on schedule next week, providing my usual mix of tired clichés and uncompelling insights. Fortunately, the race itself provides more than enough drama. I hope you'll watch what you can along with me, and then drop by here occasionally to share your observations.

My prediction for TDF 2005? I'm notoriously non-committal, and I haven't really kept up with Armstrong's pre-TDF conditioning and race results, but from what I can tell, there are no signs of obvious weakness in either Lance or his Discovery Channel team that can be exploited by his competition. I think that only bad luck -- a disabling crash or illness or a disastrous equipment failure -- will keep him from a 7th yellow jersey, and Sheryl will be Croweing a victory song on July 24th. And, frankly, there's no racer on the planet who does more to control his own environment, and thus the "luck" that goes along with it, than Lance.

Bad news for Lance and team

I've been too busy with real work to post anything, but I just took a break and stumbled across a report that one of Lance Armstrong's key cycling teammates, Vyacheslav Ekimov, will miss the Tour de France due to a crash that left him with a broken collarbone and fractured spine.

Adding insult to injury, the BBC reports that Ekimov's fall came during a training ride with Lance in Texas.

This is a huge blow for Lance's swan song quest to win TdF #7. Ekimov has been a strong and unselfish team player. This would have been his fifteenth TdF.

Update: The excellent cycling blog, Tour de France 2005 (it covers more than just the TdF, however) has a more in-depth analysis of how this might affect the team's strategy.

Tip o'the cycling cap to Planet Cycling.

Technorati tags: Tour de France | Vyacheslav Ekimov | Lance Armstrong

Congrats to a Survivor!

I want to take time out to send my best wishes to Sherry, who completed her last round of radiation yesterday, and is destined to be one of the good news stories in the fight against cancer.

If you're wondering why I placed this post in the category of "Tour de France," perhaps the fact that Sherry has now set her sights on riding the local MS150 with her husband this summer will seem like a reasonable justification. Just as Lance Armstrong came back from cancer stronger than ever, with a new perspective on what he is capable of enduring, I suspect that Sherry will laugh at a little west Texas wind and heat. She's a hero in my book.

Even if she would gladly take my last Godiva chocolate. Tough lady, y'know?

The Yellow Man will be back

It's official...Lance is going for el número siete! (Or I should say, numéro sept.)

Well, there goes three weeks out of my calendar in July. ;-)

Can't wait...

Technorati tag: Tour de France

TDF Update - Stage 17: Fresh Out of Adjectives

OK, I give up. If you have any unused superlatives we can apply to Lance Armstrong and his USPS teammates, please send 'em along, because nothing I have comes close to describing reality.

Lance won a third straight stage of the Tour de France today, nipping an incredulous Andreas Kloden at the line. Kloden had jumped out in front of the small group consisting of the top five overall riders (plus hero-of-the-day Postie rider Floyd Landis) and seemed a lock for the stage win until Lance found another gear -- physically and psychologically -- and closed the gap mere feet from the finish line.

Lance didn't necessarily want or need the stage win; he really wanted Landis to get it, but Floyd left everything on the last climb helping Lance and the other top riders blow the rest of the peloton off the course. Lance figured that if he couldn't give Landis the win, he'd take it himself.

Lance is now ahead of Ivan Basso by 4'09" and will increase that gap before the finish in Paris on Sunday. He's also setting a new fashion standard: yellow is the new black, to match his cycling socks and, of course, wristband.

TDF Update - Stage 16: Bring on the Pain (Bring on the Yellow)

Lance has now beat every competitor in the Tour de France like red-headed stepchildren, in every conceivable way: with his team, in mano-a-mano sprints and now in the most painful of cycling events, the individual time trial.

The time trial is hard enough on a flat course, but it's hell on wheels when you're climbing 1100 meters over 15.5 kilometers, an inclince that averages around 8%. Lance was the only rider to break 40 minutes on this course up L'Alpe de Huez. In doing so, he caught up to and passed the overall second place rider, Ivan Basso, who started two minutes ahead of him. Basso is now almost four minutes behind Armstrong, and his performance dramatically illustrated the difference between hanging onto the wheel of another rider over a long road course, and doing it all on your own.

How hard is today's course? Armstrong averaged less than 15 mph in winning the stage. Compare that to his overall race average thus far of around 25 mph.

It's pretty simple, really. Lance can stand the pain. I think Lance embraces the pain. As he's said before, hurting on the bike is nothing compared to being cooked from the inside out by chemo treatments. The other riders feel the pain and try to overcome it; Lance grabs hold of it and bends it to his will.

The pressure of the race now shifts to the shoulders of Lance's teammates, who have the responsibility of protecting him through some still quite difficult stages.

TDF Trivia: What do those sponsors do?

Ever wonder what lines of work those Tour de France team sponsors are in? Me neither, but here's an article that will inform you nonetheless.

Actually, it's mildly interesting to consider that most of the sponsors are in relatively boring businesses (insurance, banking, flooring, consumer credit, etc.) and the fact that they are investing millions of euros in sponsorship gives you an idea of the prestige the race carries on the other side of the Big Pond.

The article also speaks to the Discovery Channel's taking over sponsorship of The Team To Be Formerly Known As The Posties, reportedly to the tune of $10 mil per year for the next three years.

Now, the Discovery Channel is a sibling channel to The Learning Channel, which leads to many intriguing promotional alternatives for the cycling team. For example, will we see Lance and main squeeze Sheryl Crow face off against Jan Ullrich and his sweetie in an episode of "Trading Spaces"? Will the team be gifted with a fashion makeover by the hosts of "What Not to Wear" ("oh, bubby...that lycra is just so 2001!")?

Tip of the chapeau to Tour de France 2004 for the link (but don't blame 'em for the lame commentary).

TDF Update: Stage 15 - Jan puts Armstrong into Yellow

It was fitting that Lance Armstrong would assume the overall lead of the Tour de France by winning stage 15, edging out his strongest overall rivals, Ivan Basso and Jan Ullrich, who finished second and third, respectively. Basso now sits in second place overall, 1 min. 25 sec. behind Lance. Ullrich is in fifth place, still almost 7 minutes behind the yellow jersey.

Ironically, it was an Ullrich-led breakaway early in the stage that split the field and allowed Lance & Co. to bury Thomas Voeckler, who had worn the yellow jersey for the previous 10 stages. Was Ullrich's move an act of desperation, or a sign that he's not giving up so easily? Regardless of his motive, the result was simply to put an exclamation point on Armstrong's claim of a sixth overall victory.

It's now very simple, in my opinion. There is no rider-related factor* that will keep Lance from winning this race. Period. He has the legs, the team and the strategy, and everyone else is riding for second place. To paraphrase a great philosopher of our day, I pity the fool who tries to outride Lance for the overall victory.

An interesting footnote is that the actor Robin Williams was in the USPS team car during today's stage. Williams is an avid bike rider and big supporter of the Posties. As Lance pointed out, Williams' presence must have been a bit distracting to USPS team director Johan Bruyneel. I can just hear him yelling out the window, "gooooood morning, Valréas!!!!"

*Obligatory weasel words: This being the Tour de France, it's dangerously foolish to discount the possibility of equipment failure, illness or spectator interference affecting the race's outcome.

TDF Update: Stage 13

Sometimes I'm so good, I scare myself. OK, it's not like you have to be Nostradamus to predict the likelihood of today's stage of the Tour de France turning out like it did.

Today's stage was almost a carbon copy of yesterday's, with the main difference being that Lance outsprinted Ivan Basso for the win. But everything else was pretty much the same: all the Big Guns lost Big Time to Lance, and his new rivals are hanging in there. Thomas Voeckler continues to amaze, as he was dropped on every climb and yet fought his way back each time. He still wears the yellow jersey, and should do so through tomorrow's flat stage and Monday's rest day. However, his 22 second advantage over Lance won't survive Tuesday's mountain stage, which will give Lance the coveted final starting position in Wednesday's vertical time trial.

However...

I'm curious if Team USPS is scrambling, trying to create a strategy to deal with the unexpected new rivals. See, they spent their prep time focusing on Ullrich, Hamilton, Heras, Mayo. They learned their tendencies, their strengths and weaknesses...just like a football team scouting likely playoff opponents. But, none of those riders are now serious threats, and the threats are now from riders which were likely never on the UPSP radar screen.

No one could have predicted that Voeckler could hang in the mountains like he has. Basso is a great rider, but his presence on Lance's rear wheel at this point has got to be a surprise.

The thing is, this makes stages like tomorrow's somewhat more dangerous than usual, from Lance's perspective. Normally, this would be almost like a rest day: a flat stage leading up to a day off. Usually, nobody will rock the boat. But now, Voeckler could decide that he's got nothing to lose, and could try to pull off a big breakaway. Lance's team will then have to decide whether to chase, or let him have the minutes and count on getting them back next week. But he's a wild card, and getting back those minutes may no longer be a slam dunk.

I still think Lance is almost sure to win this race. Next Wednesday's time trial might be the most exciting stage of the Tour in many years. One thing's for sure, this race is not unfolding like the "experts" predicted. Fortunately for you, I'm not an expert!

TDF Update: Stage 12

OK, so Lance made a move today and now sits in 2nd place overall in the Tour de France, five minutes and change behind Thomas Voeckler (who may well be The Next Lance, but not this year). But my question is this: what price did he pay?

Stage 13 tomorrow is a killer, with seven categorized climbs...well, six, if you consider that the final one of the day is 16 km at an 8% grade and is actually beyond categorization. Oh, and it comes after 188 km of racing.

Lance's effort today wore out most of the riders who were considered his main rivals coming into the TDF: Ullrich, Hamilton, Heras...but it also wore out his own stable of protective climbers. Can they recover enough to pace him in similar fashion tomorrow?

And, how much did Lance himself leave on the mountain in finishing second in today's stage? He was outsprinted by Italian Ivan Basso, and even though no one will argue that Lance needed to win the stage, it's also hard to argue against the psychological advantage of his doing so, not to mention the 20 second time bonus he would have picked up. As usual, though, he gave no sign of what was going through his head.

I think the tone of this race is shifting -- has shifted -- with Lance's chief rivals now being riders who weren't previously considered as contenders: Basso, Kloden (who may displace Ullrich as The Man on Team T-Mobile), Sastre.

It's a cliché, but there's still a lot of racing left. But I can't help thinking that tomorrow is a watershed stage for Lance. If he does tomorrow what he did today, you can start cashing #6.

TDF: One Other Thing

I forgot to mention this in my earlier TDF entry: I'm quite impressed with the number of riders and support crew members who are wearing the yellow wristbands of the Lance Armstrong Foundation. During today's stage, there was a scene of a crew member leaning out the team car window to give a rider a quick neck massage (which, at 40 kph, was interesting in itself); the crew member was wearing one of the bright yellow bands.

The TV shots of the peloton catch numerous similar flashes of yellow on riders of all nationalities and teams. I suspect that Lance's popularity with the other riders, and the worthiness of the cause, make these gestures off support easy for the riders to display.

Say, you might want to do the same! ;-)

TDF Stage 7: Smooth...and time for some trivia

Today's leg of the Tour de France was a nice contrast to previous stages, as there were no major crashes (well, try telling that to Swen Montgomery, a Swiss rider who hit the pavement hard enough to apparently break a collarbone, forcing him to withdraw), and no threats to any of the top riders.

Tomorrow's stage has a category 3 climb and three cat 4 climbs (the lower the number, the harder the climb; there are a few - like l'Alpe d'Huez, stage 16's route for the individual time trial - which are beyond classification), and we could see some shuffling at the top. There could be a little more willingness to expend more energy than usual, since Monday is a rest day.

Without a lot of excitement on the road today, my accountant's gene kicked in and I did a quick 'n dirty analysis of some team-specific details*. The following isn't likely to be of much interest to anyone but a hardcore cycling fan (if even then), but I found some of this stuff pretty intriguing:

• Of the 21 teams in the Tour, 11 are riding bikes equipped with Campagnolo components, and the other 10 are using Shimano components. I don't know the breakdown for previous years, but I suspect that 10 years ago, the split was probably 90/10 or higher in favor of Campy.


• 13 teams are using bikes which are built in their home countries. The 21 teams are using bikes from 18 different manufacturers, with only Decathlon, Look and Time being used by more than one team. Interestingly, each of those brands are French.


• Three teams are using US-made bikes: USPS-Berry Floor is using Trek, of course. Two Italian teams, Saeco and Domina Vacanze are riding Cannondales and Specialized, respectively.


• French-made bikes are used by 7 teams, Italian bikes by 5, and Spanish bikes by 3 teams. Bikes from Swiss (BMC), Taiwanese (Giant) and Belgian (Eddy Merckx) companies are being ridden by one team each.


• There's a wide range of financial backing for the teams in the Tour, ranging from an annual budget of $3.6M for the Italian team of Alessio-Bianchi to $14.4M for the German T-Mobile team. The Posties have the 7th-highest budget, at 9.0M.


• However, much to the chagrin of the sponsors, I'm sure, the amount of money doesn't necessarily correspond to team success. For example, Alessio-Bianchi is in 2nd place after Stage 7, despite having the lowest budget. Team CSC is at #1, yet they have a lower budget than 16 other teams. On the other end of the spectrum, the third highest budget ($9.6M) belongs to Gerolsteiner, and the German team is sitting in 15th position. Granted, these standings will probably change significantly by the end of the race, and it will be interesting to see if the final standings reflect the finances.

All data were taken from the VeloNews website.

TDF Stage 6: Ride Fast, Crash Hard

I had a hard time getting motivated to post anything about today's stage in the Tour de France. As I predicted yesterday, nothing major happened. There's was the usual small breakaway that lasted up until the final kilometer, at which point about half the peloton crashed because the guy they chased down was too pooped to ride as fast as everyone else.

Lance was among the crashees (giving him a two-fer; he also went down early in the stage), but lost no time due to one of the scores of relatively obscure TDF rules that provides for no loss of time if an accident occurs within one kilometer of the finish.

I do know from first-hand experience that falling off your bicycle will yield some residual soreness in subsequent days, so Lance can't be happy about these accidents. I think everyone in the race is beginning to weary of the frequency with which the accidents are happening, and yet there's not any specific cause that can be identified and addressed (although Armstrong does seem to think that the sprinters are acting dangerously at the end of the races...but, hey, that's their thing, you know?).

Tomorrow's stage is again relatively flat, but with a lot more rolling hills than the past two days, including two rated climbs. Each day thereafter appears to get a little more mountainous, so look for the non-climbers in the group who want to solidify their standings to try to do so tomorrow.

Look for Lance to try to keep the rubber side down.

TDF Stage 5: Boredom and Terror

Rain. Wind. Cold. How would you like to ride 120 miles in those conditions? Me neither; it was bad enough just watching it on OLN-TV (which, by the way, apparently has only about eight commercials in rotation during its Tour de France coverage).

A five-man breakaway started early in the race and was never reeled in; the peloton lost about 13 minutes as a result, giving French rider Thomas Voeckler the yellow jersey after stage 5. The USPS team seemed content to ride conservatively, protecting Lance, in recognition of the fact that once the race hits the mountains, the minutes lost will be quickly regained. The only disconcerting note is the status of Postie rider Manuel Beltran, who fell at 102 kilometers; the last I heard he was seeking medical attention for an apparent injury to his arm. If Beltran is lost or disabled, that will be a blow to the strength of the USPS team.

The big story of this stage was, indeed, the crashes. In places, the pavement appeared to be coated with ice, judging by the way the riders skated and skidded across it. However, in a testimony to the adage that you make your own good luck, none of the top overall contenders got tangled in the accidents.

Oh, by the way, Aussie Stuart O'Grady won the stage.

Stage 6 is another long, flat (slightly downhill, in fact) route, 121 miles or so in length. Look for another conservative showing by the race leaders, although a breakaway by a darkhorse contender could wreak havoc with the organization of the peloton. At some point, you can no longer afford to give up 10+ minutes in a stage.

Another TDF Blog

Another blog following the Tour de France is the inventively named "Tour de France 2004". Lots of photos and peripheral quotes and stories add flavor to coverage of the race.

TDF Stage 4: "Big Win, Small Gain"

I stole the post title from Chris Carmichael's analysis of today's Tour de France stage, the Team Time Trial. The USPS train team put on an awesome display of precision and power to blow away the rest of the teams and win today's stage by over a minute, a huge gap at this level of competition (only 39 seconds separated the next four teams).

However, because of the new rules this year, Lance & Co. was able to pick up only seconds over their main rivals. As Bryan over at Arguing With Signposts put it in a comment on the previous TDF report, this race should be renamed the "Tour Defeat Lance" as it seems that the route and the rules changes were chosen with the express purpose of working against his strengths. Up to this point, however, he's managed to cope very well and, in fact, now wears the yellow jersey as the overall race leader. His teammates also hold down the 2nd-5th places, with six of the Posties in the top 10 overall at this early point in the race.

That's not expected to last...Lance has bigger fish to fry than hanging onto the yellow jersey through meaningless intermediate stages, and if one of the lesser rivals wants it badly enough, he'll gladly concede it to keep from wearing out his team to defend it. His eye is still on Jan Ullrich and Tyler Hamilton.

Tomorrow's stage should be another fast one, relatively flat and 200 kilometers in length. Don't look for any shakeup in the placement of the main contenders.

TDF: Stage 3 - Cobblestones

The two sections of cobblestones in today's stage of the Tour de France proved the undoing of more than one rider, in more than one way. The crashes that were directly or indirectly related to the rough, narrow "pavé" yielded one broken collarbone (Marco Velo) and more than one bruised ego. None was hurt as badly from a psychological perspective than Spaniard Iban Mayo, considered by some as a legitimate contender for the podium at the end of the Tour. Unfortunately for him, he got tangled up in one of the crashes, was dropped by the lead pack and ended up losing almost 4 minutes...effectively ending any hope he has of winning the race. Even though his crash was not directly related to the cobblestones, their presence certainly played a factor in his group not being able to catch up to the lead pack.

The Big Guns (Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, Heras) were better prepared (wider wheels and tires), smarter (riding hard to stay at the front of the peloton at the beginning of the cobbled sections) and luckier. That last factor is perhaps the most crucial, whether you believe in it or not.

In a 23-day race, over amazingly varied terrain and through all kinds of weather conditions, unexpected things can happen no matter how you try to anticipate them. You can optimize your odds with intelligence and money, but sometimes it just comes down to being in the right place at the right time. That's why this race is so fascinating to watch.

Tomorrow is the team time trial, a stage where in the past you might expect the USPS team to build big -- even insurmountable -- leads over some of its rivals. However, a rule change this year limits the amount of time a team can lose to just three minutes, somewhat reducing the importance of this stage. Nevertheless, watch for Lance's team to put on an awesome display of power and speed, with the likely result that Armstrong will be in yellow by the end of the day.

Barring, that is, any bad luck.

TDF Prologue: Beginner's Luck

Imagine that you're a young professional bike racer. You're 23 years old, and you've been making money racing bicycles only three years. You've grown up watching -- from a distance -- legends and legends-to-be like Lance, Jan, Tyler.

Then, in 2004, you find yourself in the incredible position of being a member of a team entered in the greatest bicycling event in history: the Tour de France! You can scarcely sleep in the days leading up to today, the first day of the Tour. The Prologue is the shortest leg of the Tour, just over 6 kilometer...or about 7 minutes of riding. Riders start one minute apart, for three hours. You've ridden pretty well thus far during the season, and you've got a starting position in the upper half of the Tour pack. Still, 45 riders will start after you do...45 riders who are deemed to be stronger, faster, better than you. But this is the Tour, and you're in it for the first time, and your heartbeat is about 200 bpm as you wait at the top of the ramp for your start.

It arrives and you're lost in the ride. The thousands of spectators lining the route are barely perceived in your peripheral vision, and they don't enter at all into your mental state. There's nothing but you, the bike and the road for the next 6 minutes, 51 seconds, which you are amazed to see puts you in first place...for now. You settle in to watch the remaining riders, sure that one of them will knock you out of the top spot, but hoping against hope for a miracle. One by one, the riders cross the finish line, and each finisher is slower than you, and your hope begins to grow.

Finally, it's time for the reigning Tour champion and time trialer extraordinaire, Lance himself. You know that you've got a lock on second place, and that's incredible. Lance is only 2 seconds behind you at the split, and you also know that the best time trialers usually have negative splits...the second half is faster than the first. Lance is riding strongly, like the 5-time champion he is, and as he comes into view of the finish line, you sense that today is just not your day.

Incredibly, though, he falls short, officially just one second slower, and you begin to cry as it sinks in. You're Fabian Cancellara, from Switzerland, and you've just won the first stage of the Tour de France in your very first try. In fact, you'll wear the yellow jersey tomorrow as the overall tour leader...in your very first try. Regardless of what comes later, your place in cycling history is now secure.

Update: The Tour de France blog reports that Cancellara is the second man to win the opening stage in his first appearance. Brit Chris Boardman did it ten years ago.

Get all the official Tour de France details here. The Tour de France blog is also a great place for a recap of the major stories of the day.